The Obama campaign for the 2012 presidential elections began the night President Obama was elected. Even in acceptance speech, it was less inspirational and more setting expectations low. The Obama Campaign for 2008 was won with inspiration, hope and alteration and the Obama Campaign for 2012 began with a somber reality check out from our new President. No longer was the message alteration, because in 2012, alteration is the last thing they want.
Obama's 2012 Re-election Strategy
What is the Obama Campaign strategy for 2012? Well, the strategy for year one is to get all the liberal pedestal and liberal power brokers in their back pockets to apply when the election rolls around. In the first 100 days, Obama cares little about public approval ratings.
Most Americans are moderates, neither strongly liberal or conservative. to win the Presidency, politicians must move to the center to the get mass votes. But to even get that far, presidential candidates need the support of either the liberal or conservative groups.
Why? Because they're the ones who give money, resources and time to get someone on their squad elected. The majority of Americans who are moderates will barely go out and vote. it is the strong liberal and strong conservatives that will be passionate enough to not only vote, but help get out the vote with other people.
Catering to the Power Brokers
So right now, while President Obama has the political capital and will to do so, they will try to please all the liberals that helped them get elected, because they will need them again for the next election.
So why is the Obama Campaign doing it now, and with so a lot speed? Because the liberal pedestal that he's trying to please will forever remember how Obama helped them with their agenda, while the moderate masses will forget quickly and will pedestal their vote on the issue of the hour, whatever that may be approximately election time. Most Americans have a short political memory and will forget about all the bills and laws that were passed 2-3 years ago and will only remember what's involving them at the time... which is usually their pockets.
for instance, President Obama is pushing to get Health Care Reform and Freedom of Choice Act, a pro-choice bill, quickly through the Congress. In 2-3 years when he's up for re-election, folks will be back thinking about the economy and their jobs and forget that they didn't really support the Healthcare Reform (which most polls are showing that most Americans do not) and that they're pro-life (which most Americans are).
He has some capital to make a mess because in the political world, it is able to be cleaned up very quickly, especially if you have strong liberal power brokers, lobbyists and activists on your side. After President Obama is done passing his liberal bills through, he will be able to very easily call on the unions, pro-choice organizations, etc, to endorse and support him.
No one becomes President because of public popularity. How do you even get to a place where you are recognized? You must have the support of other influential leaders. it is a top-down system. The one miscalculation President Obama can make is to seem so liberal before the mid-term elections that he causes Democrat congressmen, senators and governors love their elections in 2010. But again, he has plenty of time to use his charisma to make everyone feel comfortable with his administration again.
Politics is like a gigantic chess board with a lot of players and innumerable pieces, each with it is own spectrum of values. As the political game moves forward, look for President Obama to move to the center as the mid-term elections approaches, back liberal right afterward if he's successful in getting his Democratic congress re-elected, and back toward the center big time as the 2012 elections approaches.
My guess is that President Obama will must lean almost conservative, at least in his rhetoric, closer to 2012. Most of the country is conservative. He won against a relatively weak candidate that even conservatives weren't excited about in a very weak economy under a Republican president.
Watch for President Obama's rhetoric sound conservative getting in closer to the elections. Liberals are already in his pocket. they're going to vote for him not matter what he says. President Obama has a history of doing this. He rhetoric is generally moderate to the general public and so he turns around and makes liberal policies, stays quiet about it, tries to pass it quickly without a lot debate or exposure to his position.
President Obama's liberal buddies know what he's doing. They do not care about rhetoric as long as their policies are passed. The liberal power brokers will stay quiet, even for their endorsement for Obama so as to win over some conservatives and independents, most of who happen to lean conservative. Obama talks moderate, then winks at his liberal buddies. This will ramp up as the elections approach.
Senator Toomey Responds! (Or, rather, "Responds")
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